House prices in Geelong and Surf Coast are forecast to rise by around three percent in 2015, according to economist Dr Andrew Wilson.
Dr Wilson presented a housing market outlook at The Pier last week, courtesy of Domain, against the backdrop of a wavering global economy and a mixed national economic outlook, and offered some insight into what he thinks will happen in Geelong and Surf Coast next year.
He said that his Geelong forecast was based on numerous contributing factors, which included the following:
Waning prices growth as low interest rate impact diminishes:
• Moderating growth from recent solid performance ‐ unit market fading with houses
• Impacted by Melbourne housing market dynamics ‐ part of greater Melbourne ‐ commuting
• Rents steady ‐ vacancy rates reasonable ‐ rising yields an incentive for investors
• Wealth effect dormant for Surf Coast retirees, holiday homes, seachangers
• Affordable Melbourne option ‐ gateway to Surf Coast – lifestyle for retirees green/seachangers
Economic performance a drag on housing market activity:
• Unemployment down and lower than Melbourne but still high
• Job numbers however falling sharply as participation down
• Impacted by loss of local manufacturing and underperforming Melbourne economy
• Mixed local economic profile as significant regional centre however a positive for outlook
• Infrastructure development and dwelling construction also a positive for the local economy
Dr Wilson’s presentation was a great opportunity to get some expert opinion on how the Geelong region is expected to perform in the housing market next year.